ISHS Acta Horticulturae 785: International Symposium on Grape Production and Processing
A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE OUTBREAK OF POWDERY MILDEW IN GRAPES |
| Authors: | R.D. Rawal, R. Venugopalan, A.K. Saxena |
| Keywords: | Anab-e-Shahi, powdery mildew, statistical model, Uncinula necator |
| Abstract:
Statistical models were developed to optimize the role of ecological variables and simultaneously predict powdery mildew incidence in grapes (cv. Anab-e-Shahi) at Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore, India. Statistical model developed showed that about 61.4% of the variability in percent disease incidence could be due to preceding week’s ecological variables viz., minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity during morning and evening, evaporation, amount of rainfall and wind speed. Further, optimized model (Y = 199.03 – 7.96x1 – 6.23x6 + 4.16x5) showed that about three abiotic factors namely, minimum temperature (x1) and wind speed, x6 (negative influence) and evaporation, x5 (positive influence) could, themselves, predict the incidence to the extent of 59.4%. Further, as a measure of goodness-of-fit, the coefficient of determination (R2) was used to evaluate the empirical models developed. From this study, it could be possible to reduce the unnecessary spray of fungicides which help in avoiding the over usage of fungicides and better return to the farmers. | |
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