ISHS Acta Horticulturae 726: IV International Symposium on Pistachios and Almonds
A DECISION STRATEGY FOR TRADING PISTACHIO NUTS |
| Author: | N. Alavi |
| Keywords: | logical link, decision-making, market, probabilistic, nature. |
| Abstract:
In a pistachio processing plant, proper decision-making on trading a certain amount of nuts during the harvest season is important. From the interviews with the experts, we could discern the probabilistic nature of the logical link between buying a percentage of total loads everyday during harvest season and selling them during winter season with prior information. Data collection was done from records of ten years of trading the commodity. The new information comes from the daily observation of the pistachio trading market. The prior distribution together with the new information forms the basis for a decision recommendation. The results indicated that the recommendations agreed on the majority of the cases with those of the domain experts. | |
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