ISHS Acta Horticulturae 429: XIII International Symposium on Horticultural Economics
BEYOND THE PAST: THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF DUTCH AGRIBUSINESS 1990–2015 |
| Authors: | N.S.P. de Groot, C. van der Hamsvoort, H. Rutten |
| Keywords: | Dutch agribusiness, Scenarios, Policy |
| Abstract:
"How will Dutch agribusiness develop up to 2015?" is the subject of this research report. This report is based on scenarios produced by the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau (CPB) on the Dutch Economy. CPB determined the three scenarios "European Renaissance" (referring to a prominent place for Europe in the world), "Global Shift" (a geographic shift of global political and economic forces away from Europe, resulting in a depression), and "Balanced Growth" (a strong global economic revival based on a balanced interplay of growth determining factors). Under the same names, the three scenarios drawn up by CPB, have been worked out for Dutch Agribusiness, meaning the supply, farm, and processing sectors. In the original Balanced Growth scenario, Dutch agribusiness profits from liberalized and enlarged world trade. It distinguishes itself by a wide range of high quality products. Dutch agriculture may also gain a lead in environmentally friendly products. In the Global Shift scenario, the Dutch economy faces many pitfalls. In markets where price is more important than quality, the Dutch products will not be able to stand up to competition. Because of the need for environmental investments, Dutch agribusiness will lag behind in market developments. In the European Renaissance scenario, the opportunities of Balanced Growth and the threats of Global Shift compete. The scenarios do not specify their probability ratio. They do indicate problems and opportunities of importance for policy making in highly different economic settings. | |
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